India’s retail economy continues to show resilience and reinvention across policy, technology, and consumer behaviour. The Deloitte–FICCI report pegs India’s retail market at $1.93 trillion by 2030, nearly doubling from 2024, powered by rising incomes, a young digital population, and the spread of e-commerce. This growth momentum was visible in record Navratri sales, the highest in a decade, following the GST rationalisation that lowered prices across essential and lifestyle categories.
At the same time, retail inflation edged up to 2.07% in August, though it remains comfortably within the RBI band. Meanwhile, India’s AI market is on track to reach $31.9 billion by 2031, with marketing, retail, and e-commerce leading adoption. An Ipsos survey found that while omni-channel formats are rising, most urban consumers still prefer in-store shopping. The only drag came from GST 2.0 lapses, where FMCG firms and distributors traded blame over delays in passing on benefits to consumers.
Click on the headings below for insights on how these trends are shaping India’s retail landscape…
1. India’s Retail Market Set to Soar to $1.93 Trillion by 2030
India’s retail and consumer ecosystem is standing at the cusp of a remarkable transformation. Valued at $1.06 trillion in 2024, the sector is expected to nearly double and reach $1.93 trillion by 2030, according to the new Deloitte–FICCI report. The report highlights how a young, digitally fluent population, rising purchasing power, and the rapid adoption of e-commerce are collectively rewriting the rules of retail in India.
2. India's retail inflation accelerates to 2.07% in August
India's retail inflation accelerated to 2.07% in August, as food prices inched up. Annual retail inflation quickened from a revised 1.61% in July. The August headline CPI inflation has come in line with expectations further reinforcing the underlying benign trajectory. Going ahead, the one-time GST cut impact is likely to play out in the year ahead offsetting, in part, the impact of adverse base effect into FY27.
3. India logs highest Navratri sales in a decade as GST cuts fuel record festive demand
India’s consumer economy has clocked its highest Navratri sales in over 10 years, boosted by GST reforms that lowered tax rates and made products more accessible, according to government sources. The rationalisation of GST slabs eased the tax burden across essential and aspirational items, spurring confident spending. Families upgraded cars, home appliances and lifestyle goods, driving a surge in demand that brands described as record-breaking.
4. India’s AI market to hit $31.9 billion by 2031; Marketing, retail, and e-comm lead in adoption
According to new market study titled “Artificial Intelligence and Competition,” released by the Competition Commission of India (CCI), India’s AI market is projected to expand from about $6.05 billion (2024) to $31.94 billion by 2031, with marketing, retail, and e-commerce leading adoption. The report urges firms to adopt AI audits and regulatory safeguards to mitigate risks like algorithmic collusion and data monopoly.
As omni-channel retail continues to gain traction, in-store shopping remains the dominant choice for most urban shoppers. The latest Ipsos IndiaBus Festival Shopping Survey 2025 revealed that over half of the respondents that were surveyed preferred to shop in physical stores, while around one-fourth said they use a combination of in-store and online platforms.Online-only shopping continues to attract a smaller, yet significant, proportion of consumers, it added.
6. GST 2.0 lapses: FMCG products spark blame game between companies & distributors
Some lapses have emerged in passing the GST benefits to consumers in FMCG products, leading to companies and distributors blaming each other for the issues with select packs on certain channels even as the government plans action against erring firms and distributor partners. While some companies said the lapses and delays are at the distributors' end, distributors have alleged that some companies have selectively increased base prices of certain packs.